Forecasting the Ocean

Understanding and anticipating change in the ocean, and how it will affect marine ecosystems and humans, has never been more urgent. Over recent years, basic and applied research in ocean science has developed more accurate forecasts of ocean and seafloor processes that have helped communities adapt to changing conditions. However, at the start of this new decade (2025-2035), U.S. investment in ocean science, engineering, and technology is not keeping pace with growing societal needs, even as U.S. competitors are increasing investments in ocean science and advancing their capacities. At the request of the National Science Foundation (NSF), this report provides advice on how to focus investments in ocean research, infrastructure, and workforce to meet national and global challenges in the coming decade and beyond, and in doing so, enhance national security, scientific leadership, and economic competitiveness through a thriving blue economy. The report also sets out an overarching challenge for NSF and the broader research community: to establish a new paradigm for forecasting the state of the ocean at scales relevant to human well-being in the next decade. Accomplishing this challenge is reliant on continued funding for basic research across ocean studies and reinvestment in ocean science infrastructure. It will require an integrated approach to research that takes full advantage of emerging technologies, expands the workforce, and increases available resources through strategic partnerships among federal and state agencies, industry, academia, and other interest holders.