Advancing Risk Communication with Decision-Makers for Extreme Tropical Cyclones and Other Atypical Climate Events

Atypical weather events, such as extreme tropical cyclones, pose substantial threats to life, property and livelihoods in the U.S. and worldwide. Despite major advances in forecasting capabilities, communicating about extreme weather events with decision-makers and the public carries considerable challenges but also provides opportunities for innovation. Decisions surrounding extreme weather events often involve making tradeoffs between different degrees and varieties of risks. For example, deciding whether or when to issue an evacuation order ahead of a tropical cyclone entails tradeoffs between the risks to lives posed by the event and the risks to livelihoods posed by the financial costs of evacuations or relocations. In early 2024, the National Academies held a workshop on risk communication around extreme tropical cyclones and other atypical climate events. Participants aimed to identify opportunities and challenges for risk communication as well as lessons about community engagement and communication concerning other climate events. Over the course of the workshop, participants addressed various facets of risk communication, including the importance and difficulty of clearly communicating uncertainty to the general public; the importance of understanding the needs of various audiences in the context of effective communication; preparedness as a critical component of an effective response; and the often-profound ways that strong partnerships and relationships across sectors and offices can impact and improve risk communication.